"Go back to sleep and this is not gonna get better."
Polling is hardly an exact science, but that Taylor Swift/politics/Super Bowl conspiracy theory stuff is terrifying.
This week’s soundtrack: claire rousay - “wouldn’t have to hurt”
The Super Bowl came and went, complete with a repeat champion in the Kansas City Chiefs. Throughout the season, a running theme was the romantic life of Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, particularly his relationship with megastar Taylor Swift.
Initially, the storyline was that the relationship was, in fact, fake. As far as conspiracies go, this one actually makes more sense than most being that everyone involved had reasons to want to make this happen. For the NFL, Swift’s fanbase tilts young and femme, which is a bit of a problem spot for the nation’s most popular sports league. Having more of Swift’s fans getting into the NFL can only grow the proverbial — though already huge — pot.
For Kelce, it’s no secret that he has wanted to cash in on his fame and break out of the football-only niche in which he’s been living. In fact, the New York Times published a story about the team of people carefully crafting the Kelce fame story, including multiple publicists and managers. It’s not a coincidence that he’s all over the advertising on NFL games, from Pfizer to All State. Kelce getting some runoff from Patrick Mahomes’ fame was not enough, so getting more from one of the biggest stars in music would certainly help his Q rating.
Swift has the least to gain by this relationship — fake or not — in that she doesn’t get a ton of runoff from the NFL. There were rumors that she turned down an offer to do the halftime show at the Super Bowl — probably because the performers make scale — but her fanbase has never really needed the goosing from the NFL fanbase. It didn’t hurt her bottom line, for sure, that she was on TV every time she was at a KC game and that could be the answer. Her Q rating certainly isn’t being hurt by this exposure, but it’s not as integral as Kelce’s need to be more famous.
So, it made more sense than all non-true conspiracy theories (I believe that Stevie Wonder is not blind, thank you very much.) because the motivations are kinda there. But, the fullness of it is fairly stupid, for the obvious reason that inserting the whole of the media into someone’s relationship is not worthwhile. Over the last few weeks, the “this is a way to make money for all involved” conspiracy has died down and another, much worse, one has popped up.
A Monmouth University survey asked 900 Americans (admittedly, a small sample size, but good luck getting 300 million Americans to answer the phone) questions about a right wing fever swamp conspiracy theory involving the Swift, Democrats and the 2024 election.
There is some context here. Swift got her start in country music, a rather conservative circle if there ever was one (see: The Chicks, Iraq and Toby Keith). She has, generally, kept the country fanbase, but the more-recent half of her output have been more pop-based and the fanbase has expanded because of it. I imagine that she’s not been ultra politically outspoken because she didn’t want to get the same kind of blowback that Natalie Maines got 20 years ago, though she definitely broke that silence in 2018, dipping her toes into the political waters via racial and LGBTQ+ civil rights.
“As much as I have in the past and would like to continue voting for women in office, I cannot support Marsha Blackburn,” did not make Blackburn lose her race, but it did put Swift on the side of the loony libs or whatever. She later endorsed Biden over Trump in 2020. This shift has put her firmly in the crosshairs of the right wing fever swamps.
Cut to this year. Kelce is an ad pitchman for the Pfizer vaccine, a bizarre flashpoint in our current culture war nightmare. Swift is popular with queer fans and she has been active in GOTV activities. These things, I guess, come together to form a conspiracy theory that the Swift-Kelce relationship is a Democratic op.
“33.Some people say that Taylor Swift is part of a covert government effort to help Joe Biden win the presidential election. Have you heard about this idea, or not?”
Monmouth asked the respondents. Nearly half of them (46%) said yes. OK, that’s fine. I’ve heard of a bunch of conspiracy theories; we all have. That doesn’t mean that I believe them.
“34.Do you think that a covert government effort for Taylor Swift to help Joe Biden win the presidential election actually exists, or not?”
Eighteen percent of those polled said, yes, there is a covert government effort to help Biden win in November. Margin of error being what it is with a small sample size, that doesn’t mean that 50+ million Americans believe in said conspiracy. And the way that the question is worded certainly does not mean that they all believe Kelce and the NFL are in on it.
That said… 162 people were asked by a reputable polling group at a reputable university if they believe there is a conspiracy involving Bide and Swift and they said “Yes, I do.” That is absolutely 160 more people than I’d expect and, I imagine, it is definitely a sample size that means that a few million people do believe in this mess.
How did this happen? Is it that the most traditional of American duos – a country pop blonde woman and an NFL star, both white, both straight, both Christian – aren’t adhering to whatever reality these people have created for them? That the wishcasting that the conservative movement is the “silent majority” perhaps isn’t exactly true? Is this outdated worldview so ironclad that it cannot be moved in any way when contradictory evidence exists?
Of course, I know the answer to this, but it doesn’t mean anything good. It just means we’re stuck with a White House social media team that loves poking these whackadoodles and a reality wherein this self-described silent majority isn’t a majority, but we do live in a minoritarian-ruled system anyway.
Over at the Ranch
I wanted to highlight some of the work I did last week for my employer, both because I could always use more ears and eyes on my work and because I’m super duper proud of the work.
My colleague Jordan McDonald and I headed out to San Diego for the annual AFCEA WEST conference, wherein the Sea Services leaders talk about their priorities, the global threat landscape and so on. I got to talk to some bigwhigs (the Navy’s CIO, for example) about their tech priorities. Go check out our page on the site to check out the stories that Jordan and I filed and the podcast episodes we recorded.
(The newsletter is late because I was recovering from said California trip over the weekend and the Presidents Day holiday was a rest day for me. Sorry.)
Lulu Update
I was without my girl for a week, but that doesn’t mean that I don’t have photos. She went to the pet resort, got a bath and even received a toy for the ride back. I missed her.
A Recommendation: San Diego
As mentioned, I was in California for a six days last week, first working and then hanging out with my sister and brother-in-law (they live there). I got back on Sunday night, woke up sick yesterday and regretted ever leaving sunny California. I ate tacos for five straight days, fresh fish several times and drank a lot of mezcal and tequila. It was, at the worst, 50°F every day I was there. I don’t know that I’d want to live there, but it’s a damned fine place to visit.
