"Two hands, one thread - broken now, unwound."
No one loves a Trump-Biden rematch, but that's still reality.
This week’s soundtrack: Thayer Sarrano - “The Wolf”
With a little more than nine months before the general election, there are a few things that can prevent a Biden-Trump rematch in November. In a reverse order of likelihood, I would cite:
Either of the candidates steps down of their own account. This is almost certainly not going to happen.
The Democratic Party somehow kicking the sitting president off the ticket and replacing him with someone else (Harris, Newsom, Pritzker, Whitmer, whoever.). This is also not going to happen.
The judicial system actually punishes Trump in a way (prison, I guess) that would actually affect his viability. This is almost certainly not going to happen, as Ol’ Donny knows how to wriggle out of every jam. But, it’s possible.
The Supreme Court actually validates the Colorado case against Trump and the Insurrection Clause. This is more possible, of course, but it’s fairly unlikely. This court constantly talks about how horny it is for ~democracy~ and doesn’t want to subvert the will of the people.
Morbid as it is, the likelihood is highest that one or both of these very old men die before November. When you’ve got an eight at the front of your age, I don’t think it’s wild to say that your time on earth is limited.
You’ll notice two words are not in the above list, despite the media world and moderate Republican world. I didn’t write “Nikki” or “Haley” above because, try as she might, the former governor of South Carolina and former United States ambassador to the United Nations is not a viable candidate to beat Trump in any remaining non-South Carolina primaries. She isn’t going to gain “momentum.” She’s not going to win more than one state, forget the delegates she needs to win the nomination. The math doesn’t work out.
And yet… The Washington Post editorial board published an editorial this week headlined “Donald Trump owes GOP voters a debate with Nikki Haley.” The fullness of the editorial is pretty standard issue pablum about rules and norms and it even has some (admittedly well-done) snarky asides about Trump not exactly enjoying democracy (“Mr. Trump wants voters, not an angry mob of his supporters, to decide an election.”). But, it also lays out the classic notion that voters are, somehow, going to change their minds if Trump gets back into a corner and has to defend policy in a debate style.
A debate with Ms. Haley would force Mr. Trump to explain his proposal for a 10 percent tax on all imports, essentially a $300 billion annual tax increase, and why he allowed the national debt to grow $7.8 trillion during his term. Mr. Trump has demagogued Ms. Haley for acknowledging that the retirement age needs to be raised for younger people to save Social Security from insolvency.
How? What? Do you really think Donald John Trump is going to get into the retirement age discussion? Don’t you think he’s just going to make fun of her clothes and call her names?
I get that it’s hard to truly feel helpless against such a destructive force and I get that the WaPo editorial board is trying to move the needle in any way it can. It is such a bummer to stare the Biden-Trump rematch in the face and the Republican Party is so divided on the big guy; cocktail set pinheads hate him, savvier pinheads have reservations but have faced reality and the hoi palloi fucking love him. So much of this primary election runup was wishcasting other candidates (Haley, mostly, but Tim Scott and Ron DeSantis had some time in the media sun, too) because Trump is so odious to the various moderate GOP and GOP-adjacent gatekeepers.
But, come on. Face reality. The base loves Trump and the country is stuck with him. He’s inevitable. Haley isn’t going to be the nominee unless Trump’s organs resign in disgrace and the man croaks. And no debate is going to change that and Trump owes voters nothing.
Lulu Update
I had to drive to my childhood home this week for some not fun reasons, but it means that Lulu is finally visiting. This endeavor has been quite confusing to Lulu; the turnaround was quick and long car drives are fun for no one. That said, she does get to smell new things and, of course, get some backyard time off of a leash.
