"We are so like them, lost and weary and often at waste."
Do voters only see age as an issue for one of the two grandfathers running for president? Maybe, but there's a decent reason.
This week’s soundtrack: Emma Ruth Rundle - “Gilded Cage”
Last month, I took a stab at addressing the state of American gerontocracy. I want to expand a little bit on the comparative analysis side of it that will increasingly be part of the 2024 presidential election.
On Monday, the New York Times ran a story on the topic of former president Donald Trump and his “Verbal Slips” (as written in the headline) and “unforced gaffes, garble and general disjointedness” (as written in the story’s body). In the usual Times style, the story dances around the issue that hovers over Trump as much as it does the current president (Joe Biden): They are both very old men.
It is unclear if Mr. Trump’s recent slips are connected to his age. He has long relied on an unorthodox speaking style that has served as one of his chief political assets, establishing him, improbably, among the most effective communicators in American politics.
Trump, as the story notes, spends a lot of time making fun of Biden’s age. In his cartoonish style, he mocks Biden for being forgetful or doddering. This, of course, gets more than its fair share of applause at Trump rallies; the us-vs.-them nature of our political moment hardly looks inward at the elderly man making jokes about the other senior citizen in the race.
The anti-Trump crowd has been crowing about this for a while. While talking to people who despise Trump – what can I tell you? I’m an overeducated journalist who lives in an East Coast city and grew up in the Chicago suburbs. You can imagine my social group’s feelings on the big man – the problem of his age is a strong whataboutism strain. “Biden is old, but Trump is also old! Trump is constantly misspeaking! Why don’t people ask about his age?”
A slew of things come to mind here. Mostly, the “nobody’s talking about this” thing is highly dependent on where you get your news, but also that there is a greater truth about Trump when it comes to his age. Mostly, that everything else about him is way more interesting.
Trump’s age is a problem, I guess, but it’s not in the top five list of problems he presents for voters. Most notably, he’s under indictment for trying to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power after he lost the 2020 election. It really doesn’t matter if he’s 77 years old or 770 years old because he spends more time in court than on the golf course lately. His age is somewhat immaterial if Jack Smith is on his ass.
And that’s just number one on the list of “curious things about the former president.” He’s threatened various political opponents. He’s been credibly accused of sexual assault (though, like the age thing, that can also port to Biden, though certainly not on the numbers front) dozens of times. His business dealings have him under indictment in his home state. During his presidency, his handling of the early COVID-19 crisis was historically bad, as was his handling of a massive natural disaster in Puerto Rico. He, essentially, created the longest government shutdown in American history. He tried to ban most of an entire world religion from entering the U.S. He is the only president to be impeached twice.
Those are all just off the top of my head.
Joe Biden’s problems don’t flood the zone in the same way. His age has been one of, if not the, the main issues, though his administration’s relation to/promotion of Israel’s war in Gaza have certainly hurt his popularity. His kid’s legal problems are extremely popular in the conservative fever swamps, but the broader public doesn’t seem to care much about it. It’s easier to boil down the Biden problems for voters into the streamlined “he’s too old” (a fairly agreed-upon statement).
Boiling down the Trump problems… that is not so easy. The list I present above doesn’t even begin to scratch his personality, his politics or the rest of his time in office. People who don’t like him all have different reasons to dislike the man; independent of age, he’s a deeply unpopular man. People don’t think “old man” when they think of Trump, but they do when they think of Biden because they think of other things when it comes to Trump.
This bears out in polling. As the Times story notes, voters see Trump’s age as less of a problem than Biden’s.
Even though only a few years separate the two men in their golden years, voters view their vigor differently. Recent polls have found that roughly two out of three voters say Mr. Biden is too old to serve another four-year term, while only about half say the same about Mr. Trump.
Three years separate the two men, but the Times story postulates that the age issue could be the one that separates swing state voters.
According to the poll, 43 percent of Pennsylvanians said both men were “too old to serve another term.” An analysis of that data for The New York Times showed that Mr. Biden led Mr. Trump among those voters by 66 percent to 11 percent. Among all voters in the state, the two men were in a statistical tie.
I’m less convinced. Though the election will certainly be won on the margins, the public knows a lot about the two men. The cycle of our gerontocracy will not hinge on voters’ perceptions of the two men leading their parties, but rather everything else involved, particularly with Trump.
Lulu Update
Tomorrow is Halloween and we are ready here at the Gianfortune Mansion.
Here’s a closer look at her costume:
A Recommendation: Baklava
On a Costco trip last week, I made the unfortunate discovery that they now sell a tray of baklava. Generally, when a restaurant offers baklava, it’s in very small quantities because baklava is a very rich dessert. I, however, am a glutton and saw a tray of baklava as a challenge.
I am about halfway through said tray. I may die of baklava overdose and it will be worth it.